Closing Time

It would seem that someone who has been around Washington as long as Joe Biden would know when it was time to leave the stage to applause instead of waiting until the applause turned to boos. But, alas, in politics, a profession in which self-delusion cuts across all party and ideological lines, almost no one does.

Many Democrats have hoped and continue to hope Biden would be the exception, but it seems he will try to hang on, just as did two other Democratic icons, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Dianne Feinstein.

Despite multiple bouts of cancer, a desperately ill Ginsburg, obviously relishing her media celebrity as the Notorious RBG, rebuffed all entreaties to step down and refused to give up her seat when Democrats controlled the White House and the Senate. As a result, she tarnished, and perhaps destroyed, her legacy by stubbornly remaining on the Court long enough for Donald Trump and the Federalist Society to hand the nation Amy Coney Barrett. (Had Ginsburg not exhibited such hubris, there is little chance that Steven Breyer would have vacated his seat in time to get Ketanji Brown Jackson confirmed in his place.)

Feinstein’s refusal to resign did not have a similar cost, since her seat is safely Democratic, but it left the lasting image of an arrogant narcissist who appeared only dimly aware of her surroundings, to say nothing of the nuances of governance, rather than of the powerful and indefatigable groundbreaker she was.

These two are far from the only examples. Strom Thurmond, Democrat-Dixiecrat-Republican, held his Senate seat until he was 100 years old and could hardly find his way to the Senate floor without assistance. Of course, he was succeeded by Lindsey Graham and so an argument could be made that a senile Thurmond would have been preferable.

It takes a deft touch to know when to leave, since walking away too soon has risks too. Thurgood Marshall, who had stated emphatically that he intended to serve for life, instead chose to give up his seat in October 1991, allowing George Bush, a man he profoundly disliked, to select his successor. Although Marshall was in ill health, he resigned because he was disturbed by the direction in which the Court was moving and felt isolated and alone. Had he kept his original vow and remained, Bill Clinton would have nominated his replacement and the nation would have been spared Clarence Thomas.

It is easy to see why Biden is being so obdurate—he has had a remarkably successful first term. Facing a deeply divided Congress, he marshaled through the Chips Act, an infrastructure bill that Donald Trump had promised but could not deliver, avoided the recession just about every economist predicted, and watched as job growth exploded while inflation eased to manageable levels.

In foreign policy, despite his big-time fumble on Afghanistan, Biden managed the Ukraine war brilliantly, leaving a weakened Russia that can no longer fulfill Vladimir Putin’s objective of restoring the old Soviet Union. Currently, he is exerting effective pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to restrain his far-right cabinet while reaffirming America’s intention to help root out Hamas. Even China, saddled with a severe economic slowdown and massive youth unemployment, has recently come calling, with Xi Jinping forced to solicit United States businesses to increase investment.

But this outstanding record of achievement could all come to naught because of a cardinal rule in politics that Biden knows well but is choosing to ignore.

In elections, appearances have a nasty habit of being more important than reality.

What much of the country sees when it looks at President Biden is not a vibrant and dynamic leader with encyclopedic knowledge of the issues and the ability to successfully cut hard deals with adversaries both foreign and domestic, but rather a doddering old man who walks with tiny steps, stares at the teleprompter through tiny eyes, and, when speaking off the cuff, almost always says the wrong thing.

To millions of Democratic voters, it is this President Biden who is asking to be entrusted with the reins of government for the next five years. Making the situation worse is that if he falters, considered by many to be somewhere between likely and inevitable, the deeply distrusted Kamala Harris will take his place. Harris, whose struggles in the job have been widely documented, has not been pushed into the foreground by senior Biden staff, indicating that they too don’t trust the impression she would make on voters.

The only thing Biden really has going for him in the war of appearances is Donald Trump, likely the only Republican Biden might be favored to beat. Despite the party’s donor class desperately seeking an alternative, first Ron DeSantis, then Glenn Youngkin, and now Nikki Haley, they face the prospect of a nominee who will be forced to spend weeks in court at the defendant’s table, trying to ward off conviction in a variety of felony trials. Although many pollsters have stated that Trump’s legal problems have only made him more popular, responding to a poll and actually casting a vote are two very different things.

Still, as Biden continues on display, his every fumble—and there will be many—will be instantly and incessantly posted on right wing media, with his chances of beating even a convicted felon-in-waiting and sex offender decreasing with every one.

This is not to say Biden has no chance. He could defy both the odds and his public image and win a second term, especially if Trump is his opponent.

But it is a huge risk, not just for Biden and his legacy, but also the for the United States’ survival as a functioning democracy.

Joe Biden has done many things to serve his country. He should do one more and forego seeking re-election.

And on that happy note, I wish you all a happy, peaceful, and healthy Thanksgiving.