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"To begin with simple demographics, since Trump’s voters skew older, many of his supporters in 2016 and 2020 are not around anymore" —This is interesting and something I hadn't considered before, but just in my own family, two (Michigan) diehard Trump voters have passed away.

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It won't matter in Florida, obviously, but might in, say, Arizona. There was a terrific article in Politico a while back about the explosion of young voters in Dane County (Madison) and how it could totally changed Wisconsin's political climate.

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I would be surprised only if headed into election day, there was clear consensus on who will win.

I'd forgotten about Trump's ad against the CP5. He's done so many awful things, it's hard to keep them all in one's mind. And who would want to?

FWIW, here's where my wife and I are expressing our politics through donations. based on my research we think it's highly efficient. (If I'm repeating myself to you, apologies!)

https://www.voterparticipation.org

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Quite right, which is why no one should be either depressed or exhilarated by the pronouncements of so-called experts or poll numbers. This is one genuinely up for grabs, although, as before, if I had to pick a side, I'd rather be blue than red. I work with Flip the Vote, https://www.flipthevote.org/ which is terrific and the most effective voter registration group I've come across.

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