Way Too Soon to Panic

When most Democrats consider the upcoming 2024 elections, especially for president, their emotions run the gamut from depression to despair.  President Biden, despite what many consider a remarkably successful first term, is saddled with approval ratings just this side of George Santos, and in head-to-head polling against Donald Trump, perhaps the most odious person ever to seek the office, Biden finds himself either tied or behind.

How can this be?  If historically low unemployment, rising wages, no recession, tamed inflation, the Chips and Infrastructure Acts, and support for abortion rights has not made an impression on the electorate, it does not seem as if anything will.  Add to that, Trump’s many indictments, a message in which he hoped his enemies would “rot in hell,” issued for Christmas, and his announced intention to use his second administration to settle scores and eliminate Constitutional guarantees of fairness and equal treatment under law, and many have imagined a tombstone that reads “The United States of America. 1776-2024.”

Not so fast.  Let’s not bury American democracy just yet.

That the nation is deep in crisis there is no doubt, nor that the 2024 election is one of most important and pivotal in our history.  With the stakes so high, many observers, including this one, have urged Biden not to seek a second term, some evoking Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s refusal to step down while her replacement would have been someone who would defend her legacy, rather than try to destroy it.  With the numbers so awful, it was difficult not to assume Biden was running purely because of ego and hubris, and not for the good of his party and his country.

Except that, doomsday headlines notwithstanding, the numbers are actually not all that bad. 

In terms of the polls, relatively meaningless at this stage to begin with, as many times as Americans are told that the popular vote does not matter in presidential elections, they refuse to stop looking at beauty contest results.  The Electoral College, antiquated and antidemocratic though it may be, is all that matters.  And those projections look a lot more threatening for Republicans than for Democrats.

In the latest edition of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which has a pretty decent track record, Democrats get 260 electorate votes to 235 for Republicans.  Only four states are rated toss-up, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, all of which Biden won in 2020. If Democrats win any of the first three, that’s 270.  Other sites, such as the Cook Report and 270 To Win, have added Pennsylvania and Michigan to the undecideds because of Biden’s poll numbers and, in Michigan’s case, anger in the Arab American community. 

Even here, however, another look is warranted.  Those two states, plus Wisconsin, have Democratic governors and Democrat controlled state supreme courts.  Thus, if Biden can recapture some his 80,000-vote margin in Pennsylvania and 150,000-vote edge in Michigan, Republicans cannot use state government to prevent him from carrying either one.  Since Trump is not likely to gain many votes from his 2020 totals, Biden would have to lose that many, a possibility but hardly a certainty.

If he does hold both, the most likely state to give him the 10 votes he needs will be Wisconsin.  On its face, this seems problematic.  Biden won the state by only 20,000 votes and Republicans have a stranglehold on the state legislature.  But there is a phenomenon manifesting itself in Wisconsin—and in a number of other states as well—that could drastically change the electoral dynamic.

In July, Politico ran a long, detailed article about how “college towns are decimating the GOP,” in which, with Dane County, Wisconsin, as their first example, the authors detailed how the population of Madison and its environs has exploded, boosting Democratic majorities along with it.  As a test case, they cited the massive, unparalleled Democratic victory in the race to decide control of the state supreme court, and concluded, “Dane has become a Republican-killing Death Star.”

They quoted Mark Graul, a Wisconsin Republican strategist.  “This is a really big deal. What Democrats are doing in Dane County is truly making it impossible for Republicans to win a statewide race.”  The same may be true in Michigan, where Washtenaw County, home of the University of Michigan, has experienced similar growth and a similar shift in voting patterns.  “Name the flagship university—Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, among others—and the story tends to be the same.”

What makes it even more likely that this demographic shift will help Biden in 2024 is that, for these populations, abortion is a huge issue and no matter how Trump tries to distance himself from the extreme positions of MAGA legislators, he is stuck with it. 

While some have written that abortion rights alone will not be enough to keep Biden in office, abortion rights are not alone.  The economy, likely the overriding issue in 2024, may not be the Biden millstone that current polling has indicated it will be.

In its December 20, 2023, bulletin, the Conference Board, which carefully tracks consumer confidence, ran the headline, “Consumers End 2023 with a Surge in Confidence and Restored Optimism For 2024.”  Their chief economist wrote, “While December’s renewed optimism was seen across all ages and household income levels, the gains were largest among householders aged 35-54 and households with income levels of $125,000 and above,” the very demographic in which Biden needs to perform well to win.

Even more significantly, while many households reported their current financial condition was not favorable, the number of families that expected their situations to improve over the next six months was three times greater than those who thought they would deteriorate.  It is therefore possible that “Bidenomics,” ridiculed in the same fashion “Obamacare” once was, will end up with the same result—something once-skeptical Americans will not want to give up.

With an improving economy, heightened consumer confidence, altered demographics, and a relatively friendly electoral map, it is therefore not a big surprise that Biden has refused to pass the torch.

That, of course, in no way implies that Biden will waltz through re-election.  In addition to the widespread perception that he is feeble and doddering, he has some serious failings to overcome, the most damaging of which is the inability to control the southern border.  After years of castigating Republicans as heartless bigots, Biden and the Democrats have come face to face with the realization that, in this case, conservatives were correct.  The constant surge of migrants trying to make their way into United States by any means possible has overwhelmed local services and, say what you will about Republicans shipping them to Democratic cities, the problem is now national rather than simply regional.

Two ongoing wars will not help him either, although, given the fury among some progressives, the Middle East is far more of a political threat.  But there are two mitigating factors.  The first is that by November the situation in Gaza may have at least stabilized and the United States will part of an international coalition helping Gaza rebuild.  (It could go the other way as well, and Biden will be forced to contend with Trump’s accusation that he will solve the problem in one day—and get Iran to pay for it.)  But except in time of actual war, foreign policy is notoriously underemphasized by the American electorate and if the economy continues to be robust, these issues will likely become secondary.

Still, for Biden, progressives are a tenuous constituency, especially among the young, many of whom are appalled by his support of Israel while civilians in Gaza are killed, left homeless, and short of food, water, and medical care.  That and what is perceived as his eroding support in the Black community has the potential to suppress turnout or entice some voters to pull the lever for joke candidates, such as Robert Kennedy, Jr. or Cornel West.

But Trump has a tenuous constituency as well, what used to be called mainstream Republicans, especially in the suburbs, who, while moderately conservative, are disgusted by Trump and do not want to defend voting for him to their children.  (Even Justice and Mrs. Brett Kavanaugh might fall into this category.)

In the end, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that the coming election is in no way pre-ordained but rather will depend on what so many elections depend on—the willingness of citizens to participate, to consider what the stakes are and then cast their votes, even for a candidate they view as imperfect but who they realize is vital to the health of the nation. 

If that happens across the board, Biden, to the fury of some and the relief of many, will win re-election.