When most Democrats consider the upcoming 2024 elections, especially for president, their emotions run the gamut from depression to despair. President Biden, despite what many consider a remarkably successful first term, is saddled with approval ratings just this side of George Santos, and in head-to-head polling against Donald Trump, perhaps the most odious person ever to seek the office, Biden finds himself either tied or behind.
They use polling data. They also have input from every congressional district. They're extremely thorough and analytic. Larry Sabato runs the UVa Center for Politics, which is one of the most highly respected in the country. They put out a weekly newsletter that is always interesting and insightful. (Free too.)
I see what you're saying. They are certainly aware of the polls but at this stage, correctly in my opinion, they're not guided by it. In this election in particular, early polling is unlikely to be anywhere near accurate. There are simply too many variables. While the poll numbers should certainly motivate Democrats to suppress their misgivings and vote, I'm uncertain of the real utility of the current numbers. Just look at Bush/Dukakis, Bush/Gore, Clinton/Trump, and many others, where the clear leader in January lost in November.
Not that I don’t love the optimism, but Crystal Ball is whistling by the graveyard if they’re committed to not using polling data.
They use polling data. They also have input from every congressional district. They're extremely thorough and analytic. Larry Sabato runs the UVa Center for Politics, which is one of the most highly respected in the country. They put out a weekly newsletter that is always interesting and insightful. (Free too.)
They don’t use polling data since their summer prediction.
So while I get what you’re saying, they haven’t used polling data. At least not yet
I see what you're saying. They are certainly aware of the polls but at this stage, correctly in my opinion, they're not guided by it. In this election in particular, early polling is unlikely to be anywhere near accurate. There are simply too many variables. While the poll numbers should certainly motivate Democrats to suppress their misgivings and vote, I'm uncertain of the real utility of the current numbers. Just look at Bush/Dukakis, Bush/Gore, Clinton/Trump, and many others, where the clear leader in January lost in November.